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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. 2018 board/
  3. Kerryon Johnson
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Kerryon Johnson
2018 NFL Draft prospect

Kerryon Johnson

RB·Auburn
age 20.8 · 5'11" · 213 lb

On the live board, bust risk sits at 32% and the realistic range is No. 15 to No. 145.

41rank#41$2.8MCompPaul Perkins
→ DET's 2018 class
Print sheet
Backtest: model vs. reality

The model graded Kerryon Johnson at pick #41; he was actually picked #43 by DET. 4 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 8.1 of 20 per season). The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 5% peak across 4 seasons).

Kerryon JohnsonRBDraftanomics #41
Print
Dossier
OverviewScouting reportWhy this gradeConsensusProduction4Risk1Team fit5Will he be there?Comps5Film & notes

Overview

Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take

Draftanomics Rank
High conviction
#41RB·Auburn

We had him No. 41 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — DET took him at No. 43. The seasons since are the scoreboard.

Scouting report

The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet

Why this grade

Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English

Consensus

The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it

Production4

Measurables, traits, and college play quality

Risk1

Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem

Team fit5

How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes

Will he be there?

Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks

Comps5

Historical players this prospect resembles

Film & notes

Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports

Draftanomics's take

Draftanomics had Kerryon Johnson at #41 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and DET took him at No. 43. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 32%, near the position baseline. The room had him #57 pre-draft; our board was 16 spots higher.

Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 2, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.

Draftanomics Pick?
#41
Day 2range #15–#145 · volatile
Bust Probability?
32%
1.41× RB / WR / TE class avg (23%)
above class avg
Model trust: MODERATE
Actual NFL Pick?
#43
DET · Rd 2
Career Outcome · 4 seasons?
32.6
8.1 / season avg
Career outlook

Career outlook

How this is built →
5-year career arc
Elite
4%
Bust
2%
Starter
30%
Role
64%

Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.

Projected second contract
$3.6M($0M–$9.6M)/yr model
Role player / rotation contract
Bust risk
0%
comp-based — 0 of 5 closest comps busted
Model says: 32%⚠ the RB / WR / TE bust model has no real track record here — trust the comps above instead
Public-board consensus

17 public boards track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.

Pin a team in your account to see how this prospect fits your roster + cap.
Scout note
Private to this device — saved to your browser, never sent to a server.
Empty notes are auto-deleted.
Verdict
Aligned
Gap (actual − predicted)
+2

Film

Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.

Working in his favor: how many boards rank him top-100 and number of boards ranking him. Working against him: production trajectory.

Production trajectory
-0.05
HS recruit rating
+0.02
Age
+0.01
Age-adjusted production
+0.01

Model read

Model grade
0.67 of 1
Confidence?
99%
Predicted round
2

The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.

Pulling the boards…
Mock-draft consensus
Pulling the mocks…
NFL play quality?
0
/ peak 5
Below-average play
Across 4 NFL seasons.
4-tier outlook?
Role
Model expects a depth / rotational role
Model trust: MODERATE
Elite
4%
Starter
30%
Role
64%
Bust
2%

Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.

Career trajectory + forecast

Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4
Actual Forecast (comp-based)
Risk dashboard

Elevated risk — watch the flags

Risk score24· WATCH

Everything that could go wrong with Kerryon Johnson, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.

  • Bust probability32%
    Elevated bust risk — the profile carries one-year-wonder, age, or athleticism red flags.
  • Predicted-pick range#15–145 · 130-pick spread
    The model's own projections scatter widely for this prospect — the landing spot is genuinely uncertain.
  • Age20.8 yrs
    Within the typical RB draft-age band (~22.5).
  • Public-board coverage17 sources
    Plenty of public boards have a read — the grade is well corroborated.

Case for / case against

Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.

Reasons to fade
No risk flags raised.
Reasons to buy
Strong comp group
high
3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Paul Perkins, Derrick Henry, C.J. Prosise. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Scheme context
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Teams likely to draft

Based on each team's roster depth at RB / WR / TE, age, and recent capital invested.

NE#1 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters11Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
ARI#2 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters8Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereHeavy
WAS#3 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters8Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereHeavy
DEN#4 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters12Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereHeavy
JAX#5 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters12Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereHeavy

Historical comps

Side-by-side with top comps →

Closest historical matches among prior RB / WR / TE prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.

PlayerPosYearPickSnap trajectoryCareer arcDistance
Paul PerkinsRB2016#149
↓7 pts
Starter1.52
Derrick HenryRB2016#45
→0 pts
Starter1.77
C.J. ProsiseRB2016#90
↓9 pts
Starter2.05
Kenyan DrakeRB2016#73
↑46 pts
Contributor2.21
Kenneth DixonRB2016#134
→0 pts
Bust2.46
Scout reports
Paste in any scouting report you trust; Draftanomics pulls out the concrete claims so you can weigh them against the model on the same page.
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