Tight end TE
Athletic profile + receiving share + age. Volatile because role usage swings the projection.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many tight ends land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 16 tight ends with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2019 board, tier by tier.
The top shelf is bare: no tight end in the 2019 class earns a blue-chip grade.
The first-round shelf is one name deep: T.J. Hockenson out of Iowa, pegged at No. 24 overall. The break below is soft: Noah Fant projects just 9 projected picks after Hockenson, so the tier line is a label more than a wall. T.J. Hockenson is the tier's dissent — the room ranks him No. 7, our board waits until No. 24.
The Day 2 tier runs from Noah Fant at No. 33 down to Josh Oliver at No. 103. No cliff at the bottom, either: Dawson Knox is 9 projected picks behind Oliver. The risk in the group is Kahale Warring: 72 percent by a bust model that has earned trust at tight end.
Dawson Knox leads a 11-deep Day 3 group — the meat of the TE board — starting at a projected No. 112 overall. Foster Moreau is the tier's dissent — the room ranks him No. 105, our board waits until No. 184.