Refreshed just now
rank#103$1.2M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Josh Oliver at pick #103; he was actually picked #69 by JAX. 6 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.8 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $7.0M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 1% peak across 5 seasons). The AAV predictor called it: model said $8M/yr, actual was $7M.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#103TE·San Jose St.
The league moved faster than our board — JAX took him at No. 69, 34 picks ahead of our No. 103 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Josh Oliver at #103 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and JAX took him at No. 69, 34 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 21%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #126 pre-draft; our board was 23 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 3, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production5
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports