Tight end TE
Athletic profile + receiving share + age. Volatile because role usage swings the projection.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many tight ends land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 15 tight ends with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2018 board, tier by tier.
No blue-chip tight end this cycle — Hayden Hurst is the class's best, and he carries the next grade down.
Hayden Hurst out of South Carolina is the first-round tier by himself, projected No. 25 overall. After Hurst the board breathes — Dallas Goedert projects 15 picks later. The model is planting a flag on Hayden Hurst, 18 spots ahead of where the room ranks him (No. 43).
The Day 2 tier is a pair: Dallas Goedert out of South Dakota St. at No. 40, with Mike Gesicki at No. 100 behind him. Then the board falls off a cliff — 26 projected picks between Gesicki and Jaylen Samuels, the next name down. The room is higher on Mike Gesicki than we are: consensus No. 49 to our No. 100.
The Day 3 tier runs 12 deep, opening with Jaylen Samuels out of North Carolina St. at No. 126 and closing with Will Dissly at No. 254. Troy Fumagalli carries the tier's risk, a 63 percent bust probability from a model with real signal at tight end.