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rank#143$1.1M
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Chris Herndon at pick #143; he was actually picked #107 by NYJ. 4 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 10.2 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $1.0M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 6% peak across 4 seasons). Model predicted $5M/yr; actual $1M (over by $4M).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#143TE·Miami (FL)
The league moved faster than our board — NYJ took him at No. 107, 36 picks ahead of our No. 143 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Chris Herndon at #143 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and NYJ took him at No. 107, 36 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 20%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #77 pre-draft; our board sat 66 spots lower.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production4
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports