Safety S
Tackles + PBUs + speed + Senior Bowl. The bust model is weakest at safety — treat predictions as directional.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many safeties land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 19 safeties with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2016 board, tier by tier.
No blue-chip safety this cycle — Darian Thompson is the class's best, and he carries the next grade down.
Darian Thompson out of Boise St. is the first-round tier by himself, projected No. 25 overall. After Thompson the board breathes — Justin Simmons projects 19 picks later. Inside the tier, the model's fight is Darian Thompson: it says No. 25, the room says No. 70.
The Day 2 tier runs 10 deep, opening with Justin Simmons out of Boston Col. at No. 44 and closing with Derrick Kindred at No. 100. After Kindred the board breathes — Miles Killebrew projects 13 picks later. Inside the tier, the model's fight is Justin Simmons: it says No. 44, the room says No. 165.
This is where the class lives: 8 safetys carry a Day 3 grade, with Miles Killebrew out of Southern Utah at the front of the line at No. 113 overall. One split worth knowing: consensus puts Deon Bush at No. 113, 116 spots above our call.