Running back RB
Production + breakout age + age-at-draft are the primary signals. Volume is heavily devalued vs the 2010s.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many running backs land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 27 running backs with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2017 board, tier by tier.
Only Leonard Fournette carries a blue-chip grade at running back — the LSU product projects No. 5 overall. Barely a seam here — Dalvin Cook comes off just 8 picks later.
Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey make up the first-round tier, projected No. 13 and No. 17 overall. After McCaffrey the board breathes — Alvin Kamara projects 16 picks later.
Four running backs carry a Day 2 grade, and Alvin Kamara heads the group at a projected No. 33 overall. Then the board falls off a cliff — 33 projected picks between Williams and Samaje Perine, the next name down. Kareem Hunt is the argument in this tier — No. 52 on our board against a consensus No. 131.
The Day 3 tier runs 20 deep, opening with Samaje Perine out of Oklahoma at No. 107 and closing with Elijah Hood at No. 243. James Conner is the tier's dissent — the room ranks him No. 142, our board waits until No. 233.