Defensive tackle DT
Sacks + TFLs + Senior Bowl. Athletic testing weighted higher for IDL than EDGE.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many defensive tackles land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 23 defensive tackles with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2016 board, tier by tier.
Only A'Shawn Robinson carries a blue-chip grade at defensive tackle — the Alabama product projects No. 2 overall. There is a real step down from there — Jarran Reed sits 15 projected picks behind Robinson. The model is planting a flag on A'Shawn Robinson, 13 spots ahead of where the room ranks him (No. 15).
This is where the class lives: 5 defensive tackles carry a first-round grade, with Jarran Reed out of Alabama at the front of the line at No. 17 overall. There is a real step down from there — Jonathan Bullard sits 10 projected picks behind Johnson. The risk in the group is Austin Johnson: 36 percent by a bust model that has earned trust at defensive tackle.
The Day 2 tier runs 9 deep, opening with Jonathan Bullard out of Florida at No. 40 and closing with Willie Henry at No. 102. Mind the gap after Henry: Matthew Ioannidis is next, and he is 21 picks away. One caution flag: the bust model — a group it reads well at defensive tackle — puts Willie Henry at 43 percent.
Matthew Ioannidis leads a 8-deep Day 3 group — the meat of the DT board — starting at a projected No. 123 overall. One split worth knowing: consensus puts Anthony Zettel at No. 161, 78 spots above our call.