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2016 NFL Draft prospect
Adolphus Washington
age 23.4 · 6'3" · 301 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 33% and the realistic range is No. 44 to No. 232.
rank#124$1.1M
Big Ten→ BUF's 2016 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Adolphus Washington at pick #124; he was actually picked #80 by BUF. 2 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 7.3 of 20 per season), and the second-contract question is still open — no new deal yet.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#124DT·Ohio St.
The league moved faster than our board — BUF took him at No. 80, 44 picks ahead of our No. 124 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Adolphus Washington at #124 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and BUF took him at No. 80, 44 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 33%, near the position baseline. The room had him #67 pre-draft; our board sat 57 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 4, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports