Defensive line DL
Sacks + TFLs + Senior Bowl. Athletic testing weighted higher for IDL than EDGE.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many defensive linemen land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 20 defensive linemen with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2023 board, tier by tier.
The top shelf is bare: no defensive lineman in the 2023 class earns a blue-chip grade.
Two names carry a first-round grade — Jalen Carter in front at No. 7, Lukas Van Ness close behind at No. 25. The drop to Calijah Kancey is 19 projected picks: a step, not a cliff. No red flags either — the tier's worst bust number is just 10 percent, from a model that reads defensive linemans well.
The Day 2 tier runs 8 deep, opening with Calijah Kancey out of Pittsburgh at No. 44 and closing with Byron Young at No. 95. Mind the gap after Young: Isaiah McGuire is next, and he is 20 picks away. The room is higher on Adetomiwa Adebawore than we are: consensus No. 40 to our No. 89.
Isaiah McGuire leads a 10-deep Day 3 group — the meat of the DL board — starting at a projected No. 115 overall. Viliami Fehoko carries the tier's risk, a 46 percent bust probability from a model with real signal at defensive lineman.