Refreshed just now
rank#171$1M
Big 12→ HOU's 2023 class
Limited public-board coverage (2 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Dylan Horton at pick #171; he was actually picked #109 by HOU. 3 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 1.2 of 20 per season), and the second-contract question is still open — no new deal yet. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 2 seasons). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $5M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#171DL·TCU
The league moved faster than our board — HOU took him at No. 109, 62 picks ahead of our No. 171 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Dylan Horton at #171 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and HOU took him at No. 109, 62 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 15%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #162 pre-draft; our board sat 9 spots lower.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production2
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports