3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jaquan Brisker (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #58 (range #37-#79, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Amani Hooker (Starter), Taylor Rapp (Starter), Darnell Savage Jr. (Starter). Ceiling is Darnell Savage Jr. (Starter); floor is Amani Hooker (Starter). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 13 spots below the room's consensus #45 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Eyioma Uwazurike (age 24.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #204 (range #146-#262, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: L.J. Collier (Starter), Chase Winovich (Contributor), John Cominsky (Contributor). Ceiling is L.J. Collier (Starter); floor is John Cominsky (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ejuan Price, Jordan Brailford. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #83 and the model won't take him before #204 — a 121-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Matthew Butler (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #206 (range #168-#244, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 24% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Kingsley Keke (Contributor), Greg Gaines (Starter), Nnamdi Madubuike (Starter). Ceiling is Nnamdi Madubuike (Starter); floor is Kingsley Keke (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Davon Godchaux, Chris Slayton. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #112 and the model won't take him before #206 — a 94-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.