3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Andrew Booth (age 21.6 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #45 (range #37-#53, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Jaire Alexander (Starter), AJ Terrell (Starter), Quincy Wilson (Bust). Ceiling is AJ Terrell (Starter); floor is Noah Igbinoghene (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Quincy Wilson, Sidney Jones. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 25 spots below the room's consensus #20 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Trent McDuffie (age 21.6 at draft) as a first-round pick at #20 (range #1-#51, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Isaiah Oliver (Starter), Quincy Wilson (Bust), Michael Jackson (Starter). Ceiling is Rock Ya-Sin (Starter); floor is Noah Igbinoghene (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #20 and the room's #22 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Sauce Gardner (age 21.7 at draft) as a first-round pick at #21 (range #7-#35, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #7 — don't pay sticker price. The 14-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.