3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Luke Goedeke as a Day 2 pick at #47 (range #22-#72, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Logan Stenberg (Bust), Hakeem Adeniji (Contributor), Ben Bartch (Contributor). Ceiling is Josh Jones (Starter); floor is Hakeem Adeniji (Contributor). 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Logan Stenberg. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 32 spots ahead of the room (board #47 vs consensus #79), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Spencer Burford as a mid-round flyer at #162 (range #143-#181, wide band). Bust probability sits at 15% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Logan Stenberg (Bust), Justin Herron (Contributor), Hakeem Adeniji (Contributor). Ceiling is Charlie Heck (Contributor); floor is Justin Herron (Contributor). School SP+ 6.5 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. RAS 4.47 (44th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #162 sits within 8 spots of the room's #154 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 15% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Lecitus Smith as a mid-round flyer at #153 (range #131-#175, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Justin Herron (Contributor), Hakeem Adeniji (Contributor), Logan Stenberg (Bust). Ceiling is Colton McKivitz (Starter); floor is Justin Herron (Contributor). RAS 4.13 (41th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #103 and the model won't take him before #153 — a 50-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.