Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2022 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OL)
ZT
Zach Tom
OL · Wake Forest
— · — · —
JE
Joshua Ezeudu
OL · North Carolina
— · — · —
TS
Tyler Smith
OL · Tulsa
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Zach Tom
Predicted pick
#40
range #16–#64
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/3
Consensus rank
#135
on 6 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$18Mmodel
Joshua Ezeudu
Predicted pick
#93
range #69–#117
Bust probability· rough estimate
15%
0%comp-based · 0/4
Consensus rank
#101
on 2 boards
Career arc
Franchise
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Tyler Smith
Predicted pick
#10
range #1–#23
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/4
Consensus rank
#45
on 26 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$27Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Zach Tom· Offensive line
  • Joshua Ezeudu· Offensive line
  • Tyler Smith· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionZach Tom50
  • AthleticismZach Tom83
  • AgeZach Tom92
  • ConsensusTyler Smith57
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Zach Tom50
  • Breakout ageZach Tom50
  • WorkloadZach Tom50
  • RAS × productionJoshua Ezeudu63

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Zach Tom
  • Jermaine Eluemunor
    G · #159
    TBD
  • Tyler Biadasz
    C · #146
    Franchise
  • Jack Driscoll
    G · #145
    Contributor
  • Nico Siragusa
    G · #122
    TBD
  • Ezra Cleveland
    OT · #58
    Franchise
Joshua Ezeudu
  • Tytus Howard
    OT · #23
    Franchise
  • Antonio Garcia
    OT · #85
    TBD
  • Martinas Rankin
    OT · #80
    Contributor
  • Alex Cappa
    OT · #94
    Franchise
  • Cole Madison
    G · #138
    Bust
Tyler Smith
  • Kolton Miller
    OT · #15
    Starter
  • James Daniels
    C · #39
    Starter
  • Connor Williams
    OT · #50
    Franchise
  • Austin Jackson
    OT · #18
    Franchise
  • Dan Feeney
    G · #71
    TBD

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Zach Tom
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    7 boards place him at mean rank #94; model has him #40 — a 54-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Tyler Biadasz, Ezra Cleveland. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Joshua Ezeudu
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Promising comp group
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Tytus Howard, Alex Cappa.
Tyler Smith
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    28 boards place him at mean rank #48; model has him #10 — a 38-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Kolton Miller, James Daniels, Connor Williams (+1 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 5.8 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Zach TomJoshua EzeuduTyler Smith· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Zach Tom

Draftanomics projects Zach Tom as a Day 2 pick at #40 (range #16-#64, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jermaine Eluemunor, Tyler Biadasz (Franchise), Jack Driscoll (Contributor). Ceiling is Ezra Cleveland (Franchise); floor is Jermaine Eluemunor. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 54 spots ahead of the room (board #40 vs consensus #94), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Joshua Ezeudu

Draftanomics projects Joshua Ezeudu as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #93 (range #69-#117, wide band). Bust probability sits at 15% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Tytus Howard (Franchise), Antonio Garcia, Martinas Rankin (Contributor). Ceiling is Tytus Howard (Franchise); floor is Antonio Garcia. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #93 sits within 12 spots of the room's #105 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 15% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Tyler Smith

Draftanomics projects Tyler Smith as a top-10 pick at #10 (range #1-#23, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kolton Miller (Starter), James Daniels (Starter), Connor Williams (Franchise). Ceiling is Austin Jackson (Franchise); floor is Dan Feeney. School SP+ 5.8 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 38 spots ahead of the room (board #10 vs consensus #48), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.