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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (TE)
CO
Chig Okonkwo
TE · Maryland
22.6 yo · — · —
TM
Trey McBride
TE · Colorado St.
22.4 yo · 6'4" · 246 lb
IL
Isaiah Likely
TE · Coastal Carolina
22.0 yo · 6'5" · 245 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Chig Okonkwo
Predicted pick
#107
range #69–#145
Bust probability
23%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#150
on 3 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Trey McBride
Predicted pick
#44
range #31–#57
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#58
on 25 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$16Mmodel
Isaiah Likely
Predicted pick
#103
range #47–#224
Bust probability
19%
Consensus rank
#145
on 24 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Chig Okonkwo· RB / WR / TE
  • Trey McBride· RB / WR / TE
  • Isaiah Likely· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionChig Okonkwo0
  • AthleticismTrey McBride39
  • AgeIsaiah Likely81
  • ConsensusTrey McBride45
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Chig Okonkwo50
  • Breakout ageChig Okonkwo50
  • WorkloadChig Okonkwo100
  • RAS × productionChig Okonkwo0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Chig Okonkwo
  • Chris Herndon
    TE · #107
    Starter
  • Jordan Thomas
    TE · #211
    Contributor
  • Eric Saubert
    TE · #174
    Bust
  • Adam Shaheen
    TE · #45
    Bust
  • Tyler Conklin
    TE · #157
    Starter
Trey McBride
  • Harrison Bryant
    TE · #115
    Contributor
  • Brycen Hopkins
    TE · #136
    Bust
  • Adam Trautman
    TE · #105
    Starter
  • Josiah Deguara
    TE · #94
    Contributor
  • Jace Sternberger
    TE · #75
    Bust
Isaiah Likely
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Chig Okonkwo
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Eric Saubert, Adam Shaheen. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Trey McBride
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 3.91 (39th percentile at TE). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Brycen Hopkins, Jace Sternberger. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Isaiah Likely
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Chig OkonkwoTrey McBrideIsaiah Likely· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Chig Okonkwo

Draftanomics projects Chig Okonkwo (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #107 (range #69-#145, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 23% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Chris Herndon (Starter), Jordan Thomas (Contributor), Eric Saubert (Bust). Ceiling is Chris Herndon (Starter); floor is Jordan Thomas (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #107 sits within 4 spots of the room's #111 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 23% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Trey McBride

Draftanomics projects Trey McBride (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #44 (range #31-#57, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Harrison Bryant (Contributor), Brycen Hopkins (Bust), Adam Trautman (Starter). Ceiling is Adam Trautman (Starter); floor is Harrison Bryant (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Brycen Hopkins, Jace Sternberger. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #44 against a consensus #57 is a 13-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with average-to-below athletic profile the tax on that edge.

Isaiah Likely

−0.05 charting: deep-route grade, final season; +0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.02 scout consensus