3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Tyler Smith as a top-10 pick at #10 (range #1-#23, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kolton Miller (Starter), James Daniels (Starter), Connor Williams (Franchise). Ceiling is Austin Jackson (Franchise); floor is Dan Feeney. School SP+ 5.8 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 38 spots ahead of the room (board #10 vs consensus #48), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Joshua Ezeudu as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #93 (range #69-#117, wide band). Bust probability sits at 15% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Tytus Howard (Franchise), Antonio Garcia, Martinas Rankin (Contributor). Ceiling is Tytus Howard (Franchise); floor is Antonio Garcia. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #93 sits within 12 spots of the room's #105 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 15% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Sean Rhyan as a Day 2 pick at #36 (range #26-#46, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Lucas Niang (Contributor), Dion Dawkins, Dan Feeney. Ceiling is Michael Deiter (Starter); floor is Lucas Niang (Contributor). The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 38 spots ahead of the room (board #36 vs consensus #74), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.