3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Chris Olave (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #39 (range #25-#53, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Mike Williams (Bust), Jerry Jeudy (Starter), Marquise Brown (Starter). Ceiling is A.J. Brown (Franchise); floor is Marquise Brown (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Mike Williams, JuJu Smith-Schuster. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #19 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jahan Dotson (age 22.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #35 (range #1-#81, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jauan Jennings (Contributor), Michael Pittman Jr. (Franchise), Devin Duvernay (Starter). Ceiling is Brandon Aiyuk (Franchise); floor is Jauan Jennings (Contributor). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 488 → 884 → 1182. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. RAS 3.74 (37th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #35 sits within 2 spots of the room's #33 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Tyquan Thornton (age 21.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #90 (range #68-#112, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Antonio Callaway (Contributor), Darius Slayton (Franchise), Chris Godwin (Bust). Ceiling is Darius Slayton (Franchise); floor is Antonio Callaway (Contributor). 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Chris Godwin. Mixed signal from history. The call is a value lean: #90 against a consensus #102 is a 12-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group has bust risk the tax on that edge.