Refreshed just now
rank#205$1M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Devin Duvernay at pick #205; he was actually picked #92 by BAL. 6 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.4 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $4.3M a year. The 4-tier model sees a strong shot at elite: 68% probability of Pro-Bowl-level career. NFL grades have been modest so far (5% recent-3, 50% peak across 5 seasons). The AAV predictor called it: model said $7M/yr, actual was $4M.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#205WR·Texas
The league moved faster than our board — BAL took him at No. 92, 113 picks ahead of our No. 205 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Devin Duvernay at #205 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and BAL took him at No. 92, 113 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage and his recruiting pedigree. Bust risk projects at 24%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #101 pre-draft; our board sat 104 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 6, and it updates whenever the model does. See for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production5
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports