2 prospects · 2021 draft
Decisive factor: 46-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Zach Wilson (age 21.7 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #10 (range #1-#28, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Lamar Jackson (Franchise), Mason Rudolph (Contributor), Mitchell Trubisky (Bust). Ceiling is Lamar Jackson (Franchise); floor is Mason Rudolph (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #10 sits within 3 spots of the room's #7 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Mac Jones (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #56 (range #37-#75, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Baker Mayfield (Franchise), Lamar Jackson (Franchise), Mason Rudolph (Contributor). Ceiling is Baker Mayfield (Franchise); floor is Mason Rudolph (Contributor). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 25 spots below the room's consensus #31 — don't pay sticker price. The 25-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.