3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Trevor Lawrence (age 21.6 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #2 (range #1-#12, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Sam Darnold (Franchise), Drew Lock (Contributor), Mitchell Trubisky (Bust). Ceiling is Sam Darnold (Franchise); floor is Drew Lock (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #2 and the room's #1 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Justin Fields (age 22.1 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #1 (range #1-#9, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Deshaun Watson (Bust), Lamar Jackson (Franchise), Mitchell Trubisky (Bust). Ceiling is Sam Darnold (Franchise); floor is Paxton Lynch (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Deshaun Watson, Mitchell Trubisky. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #1 sits within 5 spots of the room's #6 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Zach Wilson (age 21.7 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #10 (range #1-#28, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Lamar Jackson (Franchise), Mason Rudolph (Contributor), Mitchell Trubisky (Bust). Ceiling is Lamar Jackson (Franchise); floor is Mason Rudolph (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #10 sits within 3 spots of the room's #7 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.