3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jalen Mayfield as a Day 2 pick at #49 (range #11-#87, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Greg Little (Contributor), Sebastian Tretola, Geron Christian (Contributor). Ceiling is Greg Little (Contributor); floor is Sebastian Tretola. RAS 3.93 (39th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #49 sits within 7 spots of the room's #56 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Tutu Atwell (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #144 (range #110-#178, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Pharoh Cooper (Contributor), Mike Thomas (Contributor), Ryan Switzer (Bust). Ceiling is Pharoh Cooper (Contributor); floor is Dillon Mitchell. RAS 4.24 (42th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #73 and the model won't take him before #144 — a 71-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Ronnie Perkins (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #111 (range #75-#147, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Charles Omenihu (Contributor), Anthony Nelson (Starter), Shareef Miller (Bust). Ceiling is Nick Bosa (Starter); floor is Charles Omenihu (Contributor). RAS 3.42 (34th percentile at EDGE). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #68 and the model won't take him before #111 — a 43-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.