3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Josh Ball as a Day 3 dart throw at #233 (range #206-#260, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 78% — scary. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Adam Bisnowaty, Brian Allen (Bust), Le'Raven Clark. Ceiling is Mason Cole (Franchise); floor is Adam Bisnowaty. School SP+ 9.5 (SUN BELT). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. Drafted #138 by DAL in 2021 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #134 and the model won't take him before #233 — a 99-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Trey Hill as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #79 (range #34-#124, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Geron Christian (Contributor), Sebastian Tretola, Pat Elflein. Ceiling is David Edwards (Franchise); floor is Will Clapp (Contributor). RAS 4.15 (41th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a value lean: #79 against a consensus #105 is a 26-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with average-to-below athletic profile the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Jalen Mayfield as a Day 2 pick at #49 (range #11-#87, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Greg Little (Contributor), Sebastian Tretola, Geron Christian (Contributor). Ceiling is Greg Little (Contributor); floor is Sebastian Tretola. RAS 3.93 (39th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #49 sits within 7 spots of the room's #56 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.