Refreshed just now
rank#233
Sun Belt→ DAL's 2021 class
Limited public-board coverage (2 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Josh Ball at pick #233; he was actually picked #138 by DAL. 1 NFL season in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 3.6 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.9M a year. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 1%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 1 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#233OL·Marshall
The league moved faster than our board — DAL took him at No. 138, 95 picks ahead of our No. 233 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Josh Ball at #233 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and DAL took him at No. 138, 95 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on his recruiting pedigree. Bust risk projects at 31%, near the position baseline. The room had him #146 pre-draft; our board sat 87 spots lower.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production1
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports