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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DL)
TS
Tedarrell Slaton
DL · Florida
23.6 yo · 6'4" · 330 lb
JT
Jay Tufele
DL · USC
21.8 yo · 6'2" · 305 lb
MT
Marlon Tuipulotu
DL · USC
21.9 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Tedarrell Slaton
Predicted pick
#194
range #159–#229
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Jay Tufele
Predicted pick
#98
range #68–#128
Bust probability
45%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#100
on 22 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Marlon Tuipulotu
Predicted pick
#218
range #182–#254
Bust probability
55%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#141
on 5 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Tedarrell Slaton· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Jay Tufele· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Marlon Tuipulotu· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTedarrell Slaton0
  • AthleticismJay Tufele19
  • AgeMarlon Tuipulotu84
  • ConsensusTedarrell Slaton11
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Tedarrell Slaton50
  • Breakout ageTedarrell Slaton50
  • WorkloadTedarrell Slaton100
  • RAS × productionTedarrell Slaton30

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Daylon MackDT · Bust→ shared byJay TufeleMarlon Tuipulotu
Tedarrell Slaton
  • Dontavius Russell
    DT · #235
    Bust
  • Vince Biegel
    LB · #108
    Bust
  • Demarcus Christmas
    DT · #209
    TBD
  • Byron Cowart
    DT · #159
    Contributor
  • Dakota Allen
    LB · #251
    Bust
Jay Tufele
  • Montravius Adams
    DT · #93
    Bust
  • Caleb Brantley
    DT · #185
    Bust
  • Daylon Mackshared
    DT · #160
    Bust
  • Chad Thomas
    EDGE · #67
    Contributor
  • Andrew Brown
    EDGE · #158
    Bust
Marlon Tuipulotu
  • Alex Anzalone
    LB · #76
    Bust
  • Isaac Rochell
    DT · #225
    Bust
  • Daylon Mackshared
    DT · #160
    Bust
  • Eddie Vanderdoes
    DT · #88
    Bust
  • Cameron Smith
    LB · #162
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Tedarrell Slaton
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 3.97 (39th percentile at DL). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #333; model has him #194 — a 139-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jay Tufele
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 3.62 (36th percentile at DL). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Montravius Adams, Caleb Brantley, Daylon Mack (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Marlon Tuipulotu
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Comp group bust rate
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Alex Anzalone, Isaac Rochell, Daylon Mack (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Below-cohort college production
    Position-cohort z-score on production composite is -1.03 — well below the front7 average. Raw box-score output didn't keep pace with peers.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    6 boards have him at mean rank #96; model has him #218 — a 122-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Tedarrell SlatonJay TufeleMarlon Tuipulotu· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Tedarrell Slaton

Draftanomics projects Tedarrell Slaton (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #194 (range #159-#229, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Dontavius Russell (Bust), Vince Biegel (Bust), Demarcus Christmas. Ceiling is Byron Cowart (Contributor); floor is Demarcus Christmas. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Dontavius Russell, Vince Biegel, Dakota Allen. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 139 spots ahead of the room (board #194 vs consensus #333), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Jay Tufele

Draftanomics projects Jay Tufele (age 21.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #98 (range #68-#128, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Montravius Adams (Bust), Caleb Brantley (Bust), Daylon Mack (Bust). Ceiling is Chad Thomas (Contributor); floor is Caleb Brantley (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Montravius Adams, Caleb Brantley, Daylon Mack (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 16 spots below the room's consensus #82 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.

Marlon Tuipulotu

Draftanomics projects Marlon Tuipulotu (age 21.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #218 (range #182-#254, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 55% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Alex Anzalone (Bust), Isaac Rochell (Bust), Daylon Mack (Bust). Ceiling is Alex Anzalone (Bust); floor is Isaac Rochell (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Alex Anzalone, Isaac Rochell, Daylon Mack (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #96 and the model won't take him before #218 — a 122-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.