3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Creed Humphrey as a first-round pick at #31 (range #1-#86, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kaleb McGary (Franchise), Germain Ifedi, Erik McCoy (Franchise). Ceiling is Mike McGlinchey (Franchise); floor is Vadal Alexander. The call is a value lean: #31 against a consensus #51 is a 20-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Brenden Jaimes as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #89 (range #47-#131, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Scott Quessenberry (Starter), Will Richardson (Contributor), Austin Blythe. Ceiling is Alex Cappa (Franchise); floor is Austin Blythe. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 39 spots ahead of the room (board #89 vs consensus #128), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Alex Leatherwood as a first-round pick at #25 (range #1-#73, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Braden Smith (Franchise), Joshua Garnett, Quenton Nelson (Franchise). Ceiling is Quenton Nelson (Franchise); floor is Kyle Murphy. RAS 8.28 (82th percentile at OL). Athletic tools that translate cleanly to the NFL. The call is a value lean: #25 against a consensus #49 is a 24-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.