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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OL)
CH
Creed Humphrey
OL · Oklahoma
— · 6'4" · 302 lb
BJ
Brenden Jaimes
OL · Nebraska
— · 6'5" · 298 lb
AL
Alex Leatherwood
OL · Alabama
— · 6'5" · 312 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Creed Humphrey
Predicted pick
#31
range #1–#86
Bust probability· rough estimate
5%
0%comp-based · 0/3
Consensus rank
#49
on 26 boards
Career arc
Franchise
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$23Mmodel
Brenden Jaimes
Predicted pick
#89
range #47–#131
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/3
Consensus rank
#55
on 2 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Alex Leatherwood
Predicted pick
#25
range #1–#73
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/3
Consensus rank
#45
on 27 boards
Career arc
Franchise
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Creed Humphrey· Offensive line
  • Brenden Jaimes· Offensive line
  • Alex Leatherwood· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionCreed Humphrey50
  • AthleticismAlex Leatherwood73
  • AgeBrenden Jaimes95
  • ConsensusCreed Humphrey28
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Creed Humphrey50
  • Breakout ageCreed Humphrey50
  • WorkloadCreed Humphrey50
  • RAS × productionAlex Leatherwood79

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Mike McGlincheyOT · Franchise→ shared byCreed HumphreyAlex Leatherwood
Creed Humphrey
  • Kaleb McGary
    OT · #31
    Franchise
  • Germain Ifedi
    G · #31
    TBD
  • Erik McCoy
    C · #48
    Franchise
  • Mike McGlincheyshared
    OT · #9
    Franchise
  • Vadal Alexander
    G · #234
    TBD
Brenden Jaimes
  • Scott Quessenberry
    C · #155
    Starter
  • Will Richardson
    OT · #129
    Contributor
  • Austin Blythe
    C · #248
    TBD
  • Alex Cappa
    OT · #94
    Franchise
  • Dion Dawkins
    G · #63
    TBD
Alex Leatherwood
  • Braden Smith
    G · #37
    Franchise
  • Joshua Garnett
    G · #28
    TBD
  • Quenton Nelson
    G · #6
    Franchise
  • Mike McGlincheyshared
    OT · #9
    Franchise
  • Kyle Murphy
    OT · #200
    TBD

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Creed Humphrey
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Kaleb McGary, Erik McCoy, Mike McGlinchey. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Brenden Jaimes
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    3 boards place him at mean rank #128; model has him #89 — a 39-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Scott Quessenberry, Alex Cappa. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Alex Leatherwood
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Braden Smith, Quenton Nelson, Mike McGlinchey. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
  • Above-average athletic profile
    RAS 8.28 (82th percentile at OL). Athletic tools that translate cleanly to the NFL.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Creed HumphreyBrenden JaimesAlex Leatherwood· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Creed Humphrey

Draftanomics projects Creed Humphrey as a first-round pick at #31 (range #1-#86, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kaleb McGary (Franchise), Germain Ifedi, Erik McCoy (Franchise). Ceiling is Mike McGlinchey (Franchise); floor is Vadal Alexander. The call is a value lean: #31 against a consensus #51 is a 20-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.

Brenden Jaimes

Draftanomics projects Brenden Jaimes as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #89 (range #47-#131, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Scott Quessenberry (Starter), Will Richardson (Contributor), Austin Blythe. Ceiling is Alex Cappa (Franchise); floor is Austin Blythe. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 39 spots ahead of the room (board #89 vs consensus #128), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Alex Leatherwood

Draftanomics projects Alex Leatherwood as a first-round pick at #25 (range #1-#73, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Braden Smith (Franchise), Joshua Garnett, Quenton Nelson (Franchise). Ceiling is Quenton Nelson (Franchise); floor is Kyle Murphy. RAS 8.28 (82th percentile at OL). Athletic tools that translate cleanly to the NFL. The call is a value lean: #25 against a consensus #49 is a 24-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.