3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Josh Jones as a first-round pick at #21 (range #10-#32, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Chukwuma Okorafor (Starter), Alex Cappa (Franchise), Will Richardson (Contributor). Ceiling is Alex Cappa (Franchise); floor is Will Richardson (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #21 sits within 11 spots of the room's #32 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Logan Stenberg as a mid-round flyer at #106 (range #84-#128, wide band). Bust probability sits at 68% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Isaac Asiata, Cole Madison (Bust), Nico Siragusa. Ceiling is Jeremiah Poutasi; floor is Isaac Asiata. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #106 and the room's #106 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 68% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Hakeem Adeniji as a mid-round flyer at #165 (range #151-#179, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Brandon Parker (Starter), Martinas Rankin (Contributor), Chukwuma Okorafor (Starter). Ceiling is Alex Cappa (Franchise); floor is Will Richardson (Contributor). RAS 4.61 (46th percentile at OT). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #112 and the model won't take him before #165 — a 52-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.