3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Isaiah Coulter (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #123 (range #88-#158, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Mike Thomas (Contributor), Devin Lucien, Keke Coutee (Contributor). Ceiling is Dezmin Lewis (Starter); floor is Devin Lucien. RAS 4.54 (45th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #123 sits within 4 spots of the room's #127 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 57% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Tee Higgins (age 21.3 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #46 (range #26-#66, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Laquon Treadwell (Starter), James Washington (Contributor), JuJu Smith-Schuster (Bust). Ceiling is Laquon Treadwell (Starter); floor is James Washington (Contributor). RAS 2.76 (27th percentile vs WR prospects in a 435-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #46 sits within 3 spots of the room's #43 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Gabe Davis (age 21.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #60 (range #27-#93, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Cedrick Wilson Jr. (Contributor), Tre'Quan Smith (Starter), JuJu Smith-Schuster (Bust). Ceiling is Tre'Quan Smith (Starter); floor is Cedrick Wilson Jr. (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: JuJu Smith-Schuster, J'Mon Moore. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 32 spots ahead of the room (board #60 vs consensus #92), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.