2 prospects · 2020 draft
Decisive factor: 114-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 57 points lower, $5M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV and a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Isaiah Coulter (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #123 (range #88-#158, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Mike Thomas (Contributor), Devin Lucien, Keke Coutee (Contributor). Ceiling is Dezmin Lewis (Starter); floor is Devin Lucien. RAS 4.54 (45th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #123 sits within 4 spots of the room's #127 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 57% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Laviska Shenault Jr. (age 21.6 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #9 (range #1-#57, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Christian Kirk (Franchise), Mike Thomas (Contributor), Devin Lucien. Ceiling is Christian Kirk (Franchise); floor is Devin Lucien. RAS 4.64 (46th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a value lean: #9 against a consensus #37 is a 28-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with average-to-below athletic profile the tax on that edge.