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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (C, OT)
MH
Matt Hennessy
C · Temple
— · — · —
KI
Keith Ismael
C · San Diego St.
— · — · —
MP
Matt Peart
OT · Connecticut
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Matt Hennessy
Predicted pick
#36
range #1–#75
Bust probability
0%
0%0/3 comps
Consensus rank
#76
on 23 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Keith Ismael
Predicted pick
#143
range #105–#181
Bust probability
68%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Matt Peart
Predicted pick
#40
range #1–#87
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/4
Consensus rank
#109
on 23 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Matt Hennessy· Offensive line
  • Keith Ismael· Offensive line
  • Matt Peart· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMatt Hennessy50
  • AthleticismMatt Hennessy74
  • AgeKeith Ismael92
  • ConsensusMatt Peart6
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Matt Hennessy50
  • Breakout ageMatt Hennessy50
  • WorkloadMatt Hennessy50
  • RAS × productionMatt Hennessy34

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • JJ DielmanC · TBD→ shared byMatt HennessyKeith Ismael
Matt Hennessy
  • James Daniels
    C · #39
    Starter
  • Scott Quessenberry
    C · #155
    Starter
  • Austin Corbett
    C · #33
    Franchise
  • Graham Glasgow
    C · #95
    TBD
  • JJ Dielmanshared
    C · #176
    TBD
Keith Ismael
  • Chase Roullier
    C · #199
    TBD
  • Austin Reiter
    C · #222
    TBD
  • Shaq Mason
    C · #131
    TBD
  • JJ Dielmanshared
    C · #176
    TBD
  • Ali Marpet
    C · #61
    TBD
Matt Peart
  • Korey Cunningham
    OT · #254
    Contributor
  • Chukwuma Okorafor
    OT · #92
    Starter
  • Martinas Rankin
    OT · #80
    Contributor
  • Alex Cappa
    OT · #94
    Franchise
  • Ty Sambrailo
    OT · #59
    TBD

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Matt Hennessy
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    24 boards place him at mean rank #74; model has him #36 — a 38-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: James Daniels, Scott Quessenberry, Austin Corbett. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Keith Ismael
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #112; model has him #143 — a 31-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Matt Peart
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    24 boards place him at mean rank #85; model has him #40 — a 45-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Small-school competition
    School SP+ rating -24.4 (well below FBS median of 0). College production may not translate against NFL-quality DBs/pass-rushers. Schedule rank #77 (1=hardest).
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Chukwuma Okorafor, Alex Cappa. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Matt HennessyKeith IsmaelMatt Peart· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Matt Hennessy

Draftanomics projects Matt Hennessy as a Day 2 pick at #36 (range #1-#75, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: James Daniels (Starter), Scott Quessenberry (Starter), Austin Corbett (Franchise). Ceiling is Austin Corbett (Franchise); floor is JJ Dielman. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 38 spots ahead of the room (board #36 vs consensus #74), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Keith Ismael

Draftanomics projects Keith Ismael as a mid-round flyer at #143 (range #105-#181, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 68% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Chase Roullier, Austin Reiter, Shaq Mason. Ceiling is Ali Marpet; floor is Austin Reiter. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #112 and the model won't take him before #143 — a 31-spot markdown. A 68% bust probability backs the 31-spot markdown.

Matt Peart

Draftanomics projects Matt Peart as a Day 2 pick at #40 (range #1-#87, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Korey Cunningham (Contributor), Chukwuma Okorafor (Starter), Martinas Rankin (Contributor). Ceiling is Alex Cappa (Franchise); floor is Korey Cunningham (Contributor). School SP+ rating -24.4 (well below FBS median of 0). College production may not translate against NFL-quality DBs/pass-rushers. Schedule rank #77 (1=hardest). The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 45 spots ahead of the room (board #40 vs consensus #85), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.