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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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  3. 2020 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
YG
Yetur Gross-Matos
EDGE · Penn St.
22.1 yo · — · —
AE
A.J. Epenesa
EDGE · Iowa
21.6 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
Low confidence
Take Yetur Gross-Matos over A.J. Epenesa.

Decisive factor: a stronger historical comp arc.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Yetur Gross-Matos
Predicted pick
#89
range #46–#132
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#23
on 27 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
A.J. Epenesa
Predicted pick
#59
range #16–#102
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#24
on 27 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Yetur Gross-Matos· EDGE / DL / LB
  • A.J. Epenesa· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionYetur Gross-Matos0
  • AthleticismYetur Gross-Matos29
  • AgeA.J. Epenesa77
  • ConsensusYetur Gross-Matos19
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Yetur Gross-Matos50
  • Breakout ageYetur Gross-Matos50
  • WorkloadYetur Gross-Matos100
  • RAS × productionYetur Gross-Matos0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Arden KeyEDGE · Starter→ shared byYetur Gross-MatosA.J. Epenesa
Yetur Gross-Matos
  • Arden Keyshared
    EDGE · #87
    Starter
  • Ogbonnia Okoronkwo
    EDGE · #160
    Contributor
  • Josh Sweat
    EDGE · #130
    Starter
  • Joey Bosa
    EDGE · #3
    Starter
  • Solomon Thomas
    EDGE · #3
    Bust
A.J. Epenesa
  • Takkarist McKinley
    EDGE · #26
    Bust
  • Derek Barnett
    EDGE · #14
    Bust
  • Arden Keyshared
    EDGE · #87
    Starter
  • Duke Ejiofor
    EDGE · #177
    Bust
  • Bradley Chubb
    EDGE · #5
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Yetur Gross-Matos
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    29 boards have him at mean rank #30; model has him #89 — a 59-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Arden Key, Josh Sweat, Joey Bosa. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
A.J. Epenesa
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.38 (43th percentile at EDGE). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Takkarist McKinley, Derek Barnett, Duke Ejiofor. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Yetur Gross-MatosA.J. Epenesa· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Yetur Gross-Matos

Draftanomics projects Yetur Gross-Matos (age 22.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #89 (range #46-#132, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Arden Key (Starter), Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (Contributor), Josh Sweat (Starter). Ceiling is Joey Bosa (Starter); floor is Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #30 and the model won't take him before #89 — a 59-spot markdown. The 59-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.

A.J. Epenesa

Draftanomics projects A.J. Epenesa (age 21.6 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #59 (range #16-#102, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Takkarist McKinley (Bust), Derek Barnett (Bust), Arden Key (Starter). Ceiling is Bradley Chubb (Starter); floor is Arden Key (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Takkarist McKinley, Derek Barnett, Duke Ejiofor. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 29 spots below the room's consensus #30 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.