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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2020 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
QW
Quez Watkins
WR · Southern Miss
21.9 yo · 6'0" · 185 lb
IC
Isaiah Coulter
WR · Rhode Island
21.6 yo · 6'2" · 198 lb
Tiebreaker
Medium confidence
Take Isaiah Coulter over Quez Watkins.

Decisive factor: 91-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Quez Watkins
Predicted pick
#214
range #131–#265
Bust probability
40%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Isaiah Coulter
Predicted pick
#123
range #88–#158
Bust probability
57%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#81
on 1 board
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Quez Watkins· RB / WR / TE
  • Isaiah Coulter· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionQuez Watkins0
  • AthleticismQuez Watkins37
  • AgeIsaiah Coulter90
  • ConsensusIsaiah Coulter20
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Quez Watkins50
  • Breakout ageQuez Watkins50
  • WorkloadQuez Watkins100
  • RAS × productionQuez Watkins0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Quez Watkins
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Isaiah Coulter
  • Mike Thomas
    WR · #206
    Contributor
  • Devin Lucien
    WR · #225
    TBD
  • Keke Coutee
    WR · #103
    Contributor
  • Dezmin Lewis
    WR · #234
    Starter
  • J'Mon Moore
    WR · #133
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Quez Watkins
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Isaiah Coulter
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.54 (45th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: J'Mon Moore. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Quez WatkinsIsaiah Coulter· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Quez Watkins

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.04 charting: yards per route run from the slot, career avg; +0.03 age

Isaiah Coulter

Draftanomics projects Isaiah Coulter (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #123 (range #88-#158, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Mike Thomas (Contributor), Devin Lucien, Keke Coutee (Contributor). Ceiling is Dezmin Lewis (Starter); floor is Devin Lucien. RAS 4.54 (45th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #123 sits within 4 spots of the room's #127 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 57% bust probability break ties on draft day.