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Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2020 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (G)
LS
Logan Stenberg
G · Kentucky
— · — · —
BB
Ben Bartch
G · Saint John's (MN)
— · — · —
BB
Ben Bredeson
G · Michigan
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Logan Stenberg
Predicted pick
#106
range #84–#128
Bust probability
68%
Consensus rank
#131
on 2 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Ben Bartch
Predicted pick
#55
range #36–#74
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#158
on 22 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Ben Bredeson
Predicted pick
#82
range #28–#136
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#93
on 8 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Logan Stenberg· Offensive line
  • Ben Bartch· Offensive line
  • Ben Bredeson· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionLogan Stenberg50
  • AthleticismBen Bartch38
  • AgeBen Bartch78
  • ConsensusLogan Stenberg22
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Logan Stenberg50
  • Breakout ageLogan Stenberg50
  • WorkloadLogan Stenberg50
  • RAS × productionBen Bredeson85

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Logan Stenberg
  • Isaac Asiata
    G · #164
    TBD
  • Cole Madison
    G · #138
    Bust
  • Nico Siragusa
    G · #122
    TBD
  • Parker Ehinger
    G · #105
    TBD
  • Jeremiah Poutasi
    G · #66
    TBD
Ben Bartch
  • Colby Gossett
    G · #213
    Contributor
  • Jordan Morgan
    G · #147
    TBD
  • Sam Jones
    G · #183
    Bust
  • Robert Myers
    G · #176
    TBD
  • Terry Poole
    G · #130
    TBD
Ben Bredeson
  • Braden Smith
    G · #37
    Franchise
  • Joshua Garnett
    G · #28
    TBD
  • Vadal Alexander
    G · #234
    TBD
  • Wyatt Teller
    G · #166
    Franchise
  • Spencer Drango
    G · #168
    TBD

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Logan Stenberg
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Ben Bartch
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    23 boards place him at mean rank #97; model has him #55 — a 42-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Ben Bredeson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Braden Smith, Wyatt Teller. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Logan StenbergBen BartchBen Bredeson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Logan Stenberg

Draftanomics projects Logan Stenberg as a mid-round flyer at #106 (range #84-#128, wide band). Bust probability sits at 68% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Isaac Asiata, Cole Madison (Bust), Nico Siragusa. Ceiling is Jeremiah Poutasi; floor is Isaac Asiata. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #106 and the room's #106 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 68% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Ben Bartch

Draftanomics projects Ben Bartch as a Day 2 pick at #55 (range #36-#74, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Colby Gossett (Contributor), Jordan Morgan, Sam Jones (Bust). Ceiling is Terry Poole; floor is Colby Gossett (Contributor). The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 42 spots ahead of the room (board #55 vs consensus #97), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Ben Bredeson

Draftanomics projects Ben Bredeson as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #82 (range #28-#136, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Braden Smith (Franchise), Joshua Garnett, Vadal Alexander. Ceiling is Braden Smith (Franchise); floor is Vadal Alexander. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #82 sits within 7 spots of the room's #89 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.