3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Harrison Bryant (age 22.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #124 (range #90-#158, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Chris Herndon (Starter), Jaylen Samuels (Contributor), Adam Shaheen (Bust). Ceiling is Dallas Goedert (Franchise); floor is Jaylen Samuels (Contributor). RAS 3.90 (39th percentile at TE). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #75 and the model won't take him before #124 — a 49-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Brycen Hopkins (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #107 (range #63-#151, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: MyCole Pruitt (Starter), Tyler Conklin (Starter), Eric Saubert (Bust). Ceiling is MyCole Pruitt (Starter); floor is Beau Sandland. Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #92 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Adam Trautman (age 23.2 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #88 (range #36-#140, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Adam Shaheen (Bust), Dallas Goedert (Franchise), Chris Herndon (Starter). Ceiling is Dallas Goedert (Franchise); floor is Beau Sandland. Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #88 sits within 8 spots of the room's #80 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.