2 prospects · 2020 draft
Decisive factor: 104-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $59M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jacob Eason (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #105 (range #68-#142, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Brett Hundley (Starter), Joshua Dobbs, Cody Kessler (Starter). Ceiling is Cody Kessler (Starter); floor is Chad Kelly. PPA avg_all 0.296 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 30 spots below the room's consensus #75 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — negative per-play impact leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Joe Burrow (age 23.4 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #1 (range #1-#42, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Baker Mayfield (Franchise), Kevin Hogan (Starter), Lamar Jackson (Franchise). Ceiling is Baker Mayfield (Franchise); floor is Kevin Hogan (Starter). Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #1 and the room's #2 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.