3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jonathan Greenard (age 22.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #148 (range #106-#190, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Duke Ejiofor (Bust), Arden Key (Starter), Trevon Young (Bust). Ceiling is Arden Key (Starter); floor is B.J. Dubose. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Duke Ejiofor, Trevon Young, Breeland Speaks. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #86 and the model won't take him before #148 — a 62-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Kenny Willekes (age 22.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #121 (range #71-#171, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Duke Ejiofor (Bust), Tarell Basham (Bust), Takkarist McKinley (Bust). Ceiling is Dorance Armstrong Jr. (Starter); floor is Justin Lawler (Bust). Drafted #225 by MIN in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #102 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Trevis Gipson (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #242 (range #199-#285, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Duke Ejiofor (Bust), Dorance Armstrong Jr. (Starter), Dawuane Smoot (Bust). Ceiling is Dorance Armstrong Jr. (Starter); floor is Justin Lawler (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Duke Ejiofor, Dawuane Smoot, Justin Lawler (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #95 and the model won't take him before #242 — a 147-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.