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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
IH
Isaiah Hodgins
WR · Oregon St.
21.5 yo · — · —
IC
Isaiah Coulter
WR · Rhode Island
21.6 yo · 6'2" · 198 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Isaiah Coulter over Isaiah Hodgins.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 8 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Isaiah Hodgins
Predicted pick
#118
range #80–#156
Bust probability
65%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#99
on 3 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Isaiah Coulter
Predicted pick
#123
range #88–#158
Bust probability
57%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#81
on 1 board
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Isaiah Hodgins· RB / WR / TE
  • Isaiah Coulter· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionIsaiah Hodgins0
  • AthleticismIsaiah Hodgins37
  • AgeIsaiah Hodgins91
  • ConsensusIsaiah Hodgins20
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Isaiah Hodgins50
  • Breakout ageIsaiah Hodgins50
  • WorkloadIsaiah Hodgins100
  • RAS × productionIsaiah Hodgins0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Keke CouteeWR · Contributor→ shared byIsaiah HodginsIsaiah Coulter
Isaiah Hodgins
  • Keke Couteeshared
    WR · #103
    Contributor
  • Chad Hansen
    WR · #141
    Bust
  • Cedrick Wilson Jr.
    WR · #208
    Contributor
  • Daniel Braverman
    WR · #230
    Bust
  • Michael Gallup
    WR · #81
    Franchise
Isaiah Coulter
  • Mike Thomas
    WR · #206
    Contributor
  • Devin Lucien
    WR · #225
    TBD
  • Keke Couteeshared
    WR · #103
    Contributor
  • Dezmin Lewis
    WR · #234
    Starter
  • J'Mon Moore
    WR · #133
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Isaiah Hodgins
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #207 by BUF in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Chad Hansen, Daniel Braverman. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Isaiah Coulter
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.54 (45th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: J'Mon Moore. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Isaiah HodginsIsaiah Coulter· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Isaiah Hodgins

Draftanomics projects Isaiah Hodgins (age 21.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #118 (range #80-#156, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Keke Coutee (Contributor), Chad Hansen (Bust), Cedrick Wilson Jr. (Contributor). Ceiling is Michael Gallup (Franchise); floor is Cedrick Wilson Jr. (Contributor). Drafted #207 by BUF in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #118 sits within 10 spots of the room's #108 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 65% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Isaiah Coulter

Draftanomics projects Isaiah Coulter (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #123 (range #88-#158, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Mike Thomas (Contributor), Devin Lucien, Keke Coutee (Contributor). Ceiling is Dezmin Lewis (Starter); floor is Devin Lucien. RAS 4.54 (45th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #123 sits within 4 spots of the room's #127 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 57% bust probability break ties on draft day.