2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: 18-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Brian Burns (age 21.0 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #8 (range #1-#27, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Solomon Thomas (Bust), Myles Garrett (Bust), Emmanuel Ogbah (Starter). Ceiling is Emmanuel Ogbah (Starter); floor is Tarell Basham (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Solomon Thomas, Myles Garrett, Takkarist McKinley (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #8 sits within 6 spots of the room's #14 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Montez Sweat (age 22.6 at draft) as a first-round pick at #26 (range #8-#44, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Takkarist McKinley (Bust), Tarell Basham (Bust), Derek Barnett (Bust). Ceiling is Jihad Ward (Starter); floor is Derek Rivers. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Takkarist McKinley, Tarell Basham, Derek Barnett. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #26 sits within 10 spots of the room's #16 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.