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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
BB
Brian Burns
EDGE · Florida St.
21.0 yo · 6'5" · 249 lb
MS
Montez Sweat
EDGE · Mississippi St.
22.6 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Brian Burns over Montez Sweat.

Decisive factor: 18-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Brian Burns
Predicted pick
#8
range #1–#27
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#9
on 27 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$27Mmodel
Montez Sweat
Predicted pick
#26
range #8–#44
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#10
on 27 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$31Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Brian Burns· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Montez Sweat· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionBrian Burns38
  • AthleticismBrian Burns86
  • AgeBrian Burns70
  • ConsensusBrian Burns92
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Brian Burns50
  • Breakout ageBrian Burns50
  • WorkloadBrian Burns100
  • RAS × productionBrian Burns0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Takkarist McKinleyEDGE · Bust→ shared byBrian BurnsMontez Sweat
  • Tarell BashamEDGE · Bust→ shared byBrian BurnsMontez Sweat
Brian Burns
  • Solomon Thomas
    EDGE · #3
    Bust
  • Myles Garrett
    EDGE · #1
    Bust
  • Emmanuel Ogbah
    EDGE · #32
    Starter
  • Takkarist McKinleyshared
    EDGE · #26
    Bust
  • Tarell Bashamshared
    EDGE · #80
    Bust
Montez Sweat
  • Takkarist McKinleyshared
    EDGE · #26
    Bust
  • Tarell Bashamshared
    EDGE · #80
    Bust
  • Derek Barnett
    EDGE · #14
    Bust
  • Derek Rivers
    EDGE · #83
    TBD
  • Jihad Ward
    EDGE · #44
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Brian Burns
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Solomon Thomas, Myles Garrett, Takkarist McKinley (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Montez Sweat
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Takkarist McKinley, Tarell Basham, Derek Barnett. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Snap share
Brian BurnsMontez Sweat· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Brian Burns

Draftanomics projects Brian Burns (age 21.0 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #8 (range #1-#27, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Solomon Thomas (Bust), Myles Garrett (Bust), Emmanuel Ogbah (Starter). Ceiling is Emmanuel Ogbah (Starter); floor is Tarell Basham (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Solomon Thomas, Myles Garrett, Takkarist McKinley (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #8 sits within 6 spots of the room's #14 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Montez Sweat

Draftanomics projects Montez Sweat (age 22.6 at draft) as a first-round pick at #26 (range #8-#44, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Takkarist McKinley (Bust), Tarell Basham (Bust), Derek Barnett (Bust). Ceiling is Jihad Ward (Starter); floor is Derek Rivers. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Takkarist McKinley, Tarell Basham, Derek Barnett. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #26 sits within 10 spots of the room's #16 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.