3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Noah Fant (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #33 (range #1-#81, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Evan Engram (Bust), David Njoku (Bust), Bucky Hodges. Ceiling is Jordan Leggett; floor is Bucky Hodges. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Evan Engram, David Njoku, Gerald Everett. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #18 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects T.J. Hockenson (age 21.8 at draft) as a first-round pick at #24 (range #1-#79, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Evan Engram (Bust), David Njoku (Bust), Jordan Leggett. Ceiling is Jordan Leggett; floor is Thomas Duarte (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Evan Engram, David Njoku, Thomas Duarte (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 13 spots below the room's consensus #11 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.70s) leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Irv Smith Jr. (age 20.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #68 (range #12-#124, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jordan Leggett, Evan Engram (Bust), Thomas Duarte (Bust). Ceiling is Hunter Henry (Starter); floor is Bucky Hodges. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Evan Engram, Thomas Duarte. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 21 spots below the room's consensus #47 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.