3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects JJ Arcega-Whiteside (age 22.3 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #87 (range #39-#135, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: JuJu Smith-Schuster (Bust), Daniel Braverman (Bust), Shelton Gibson (Bust). Ceiling is Carlos Henderson; floor is Isaiah Ford. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Daniel Braverman, Shelton Gibson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 26 spots below the room's consensus #61 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Marquise Brown (age 21.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #25 (range #12-#38, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: JuJu Smith-Schuster (Bust), Laquon Treadwell (Starter), Corey Davis (Bust). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Laquon Treadwell (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Corey Davis, Mike Williams. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #25 sits within 7 spots of the room's #32 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Kelvin Harmon (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #62 (range #30-#94, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Daniel Braverman (Bust), Mike Thomas (Contributor), Devin Lucien. Ceiling is Chris Moore (Contributor); floor is Isaiah Ford. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #62 sits within 10 spots of the room's #52 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.