3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Byron Murphy (age 21.3 at draft) as a first-round pick at #21 (range #4-#38, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Eli Apple (Starter), Kendall Fuller (Starter), Mackensie Alexander (Contributor). Ceiling is Eli Apple (Starter); floor is Mackensie Alexander (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Adoree' Jackson, Quincy Wilson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #21 sits within 2 spots of the room's #19 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Deandre Baker (age 21.6 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #38 (range #23-#53, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Eli Apple (Starter), Mackensie Alexander (Contributor), Teez Tabor (Bust). Ceiling is Eli Apple (Starter); floor is Mackensie Alexander (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Teez Tabor, Sidney Jones. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #38 sits within 7 spots of the room's #31 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Joejuan Williams (age 21.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #96 (range #72-#120, wide band). Bust probability sits at 37% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Kendall Fuller (Starter), Rasul Douglas (Bust), Mackensie Alexander (Contributor). Ceiling is Kendall Fuller (Starter); floor is Corn Elder. 40-yard dash of 4.64s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 21 spots below the room's consensus #75 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — cb slow 40 (4.64s) leads the case against.