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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (TE)
KS
Kaden Smith
TE · Stanford
22.0 yo · 6'5" · 255 lb
TH
T.J. Hockenson
TE · Iowa
21.8 yo · 6'5" · 251 lb
IJ
Irv Smith Jr.
TE · Alabama
20.7 yo · 6'2" · 242 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Kaden Smith
Predicted pick
#147
range #121–#173
Bust probability
8%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#128
on 5 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
T.J. Hockenson
Predicted pick
#24
range #1–#79
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#7
on 27 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$30Mmodel
Irv Smith Jr.
Predicted pick
#68
range #12–#124
Bust probability
0%
0%0/3 comps
Consensus rank
#42
on 25 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Kaden Smith· RB / WR / TE
  • T.J. Hockenson· RB / WR / TE
  • Irv Smith Jr.· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKaden Smith32
  • AthleticismT.J. Hockenson29
  • AgeKaden Smith90
  • ConsensusT.J. Hockenson100
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Kaden Smith50
  • Breakout ageKaden Smith50
  • WorkloadKaden Smith100
  • RAS × productionKaden Smith0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Jordan LeggettTE · TBD→ shared byKaden SmithT.J. HockensonIrv Smith Jr.
  • Evan EngramTE · Bust→ shared byT.J. HockensonIrv Smith Jr.
  • Thomas DuarteTE · Bust→ shared byT.J. HockensonIrv Smith Jr.
Kaden Smith
  • Jeremy Sprinkle
    TE · #154
    Bust
  • Jordan Leggettshared
    TE · #150
    TBD
  • Tyler Kroft
    TE · #85
    Starter
  • Maxx Williams
    TE · #55
    Starter
  • Austin Hooper
    TE · #81
    Starter
T.J. Hockenson
  • Evan Engramshared
    TE · #23
    Bust
  • David Njoku
    TE · #29
    Bust
  • Jordan Leggettshared
    TE · #150
    TBD
  • Thomas Duarteshared
    TE · #231
    Bust
  • Gerald Everett
    TE · #44
    Bust
Irv Smith Jr.
  • Jordan Leggettshared
    TE · #150
    TBD
  • Evan Engramshared
    TE · #23
    Bust
  • Thomas Duarteshared
    TE · #231
    Bust
  • Hunter Henry
    TE · #35
    Starter
  • Bucky Hodges
    TE · #201
    TBD

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Kaden Smith
Risks
  • TE slow 40 (4.92s)
    40-yard dash of 4.92s — below-average separation speed for the position.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    6 boards have him at mean rank #100; model has him #147 — a 47-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Tyler Kroft, Maxx Williams, Austin Hooper. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
T.J. Hockenson
Risks
  • TE slow 40 (4.70s)
    40-yard dash of 4.70s — below-average separation speed for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Evan Engram, David Njoku, Thomas Duarte (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Irv Smith Jr.
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Evan Engram, Thomas Duarte. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Snap share
Kaden SmithT.J. HockensonIrv Smith Jr.· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Kaden Smith

Draftanomics projects Kaden Smith (age 22.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #147 (range #121-#173, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 8% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jeremy Sprinkle (Bust), Jordan Leggett, Tyler Kroft (Starter). Ceiling is Maxx Williams (Starter); floor is Jordan Leggett. 40-yard dash of 4.92s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #100 and the model won't take him before #147 — a 47-spot markdown. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.92s) leads the case against.

T.J. Hockenson

Draftanomics projects T.J. Hockenson (age 21.8 at draft) as a first-round pick at #24 (range #1-#79, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Evan Engram (Bust), David Njoku (Bust), Jordan Leggett. Ceiling is Jordan Leggett; floor is Thomas Duarte (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Evan Engram, David Njoku, Thomas Duarte (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 13 spots below the room's consensus #11 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.70s) leads the case against.

Irv Smith Jr.

Draftanomics projects Irv Smith Jr. (age 20.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #68 (range #12-#124, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jordan Leggett, Evan Engram (Bust), Thomas Duarte (Bust). Ceiling is Hunter Henry (Starter); floor is Bucky Hodges. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Evan Engram, Thomas Duarte. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 21 spots below the room's consensus #47 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.