2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: a stronger historical comp arc. Reinforced by 14-pick gap on Draftanomics projection and $7M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Julian Love (age 21.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #35 (range #8-#62, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Adoree' Jackson (Bust), Chidobe Awuzie (Bust), Kevin King (Bust). Ceiling is Howard Wilson; floor is Rasul Douglas (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Adoree' Jackson, Chidobe Awuzie, Kevin King (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #35 against a consensus #51 is a 16-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Byron Murphy (age 21.3 at draft) as a first-round pick at #21 (range #4-#38, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Eli Apple (Starter), Kendall Fuller (Starter), Mackensie Alexander (Contributor). Ceiling is Eli Apple (Starter); floor is Mackensie Alexander (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Adoree' Jackson, Quincy Wilson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #21 sits within 2 spots of the room's #19 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.