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Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (TE)
IJ
Irv Smith Jr.
TE · Alabama
20.7 yo · 6'2" · 242 lb
JS
Jace Sternberger
TE · Texas A&M
22.8 yo · 6'4" · 251 lb
KS
Kaden Smith
TE · Stanford
22.0 yo · 6'5" · 255 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Irv Smith Jr.
Predicted pick
#68
range #12–#124
Bust probability
0%
0%0/3 comps
Consensus rank
#42
on 25 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Jace Sternberger
Predicted pick
#131
range #81–#181
Bust probability
57%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#79
on 21 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Kaden Smith
Predicted pick
#147
range #121–#173
Bust probability
8%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#128
on 5 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Irv Smith Jr.· RB / WR / TE
  • Jace Sternberger· RB / WR / TE
  • Kaden Smith· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionIrv Smith Jr.32
  • AthleticismIrv Smith Jr.29
  • AgeKaden Smith90
  • ConsensusIrv Smith Jr.23
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Irv Smith Jr.50
  • Breakout ageIrv Smith Jr.50
  • WorkloadIrv Smith Jr.100
  • RAS × productionIrv Smith Jr.0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Jordan LeggettTE · TBD→ shared byIrv Smith Jr.Jace SternbergerKaden Smith
  • Evan EngramTE · Bust→ shared byIrv Smith Jr.Jace Sternberger
  • Thomas DuarteTE · Bust→ shared byIrv Smith Jr.Jace Sternberger
Irv Smith Jr.
  • Jordan Leggettshared
    TE · #150
    TBD
  • Evan Engramshared
    TE · #23
    Bust
  • Thomas Duarteshared
    TE · #231
    Bust
  • Hunter Henry
    TE · #35
    Starter
  • Bucky Hodges
    TE · #201
    TBD
Jace Sternberger
  • Thomas Duarteshared
    TE · #231
    Bust
  • Jordan Leggettshared
    TE · #150
    TBD
  • Evan Engramshared
    TE · #23
    Bust
  • Adam Shaheen
    TE · #45
    Bust
  • Nick Vannett
    TE · #94
    Starter
Kaden Smith
  • Jeremy Sprinkle
    TE · #154
    Bust
  • Jordan Leggettshared
    TE · #150
    TBD
  • Tyler Kroft
    TE · #85
    Starter
  • Maxx Williams
    TE · #55
    Starter
  • Austin Hooper
    TE · #81
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Irv Smith Jr.
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Evan Engram, Thomas Duarte. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jace Sternberger
Risks
  • TE slow 40 (4.75s)
    40-yard dash of 4.75s — below-average separation speed for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Thomas Duarte, Evan Engram, Adam Shaheen. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    22 boards have him at mean rank #75; model has him #131 — a 56-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Kaden Smith
Risks
  • TE slow 40 (4.92s)
    40-yard dash of 4.92s — below-average separation speed for the position.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    6 boards have him at mean rank #100; model has him #147 — a 47-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Tyler Kroft, Maxx Williams, Austin Hooper. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Irv Smith Jr.Jace SternbergerKaden Smith· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Irv Smith Jr.

Draftanomics projects Irv Smith Jr. (age 20.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #68 (range #12-#124, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jordan Leggett, Evan Engram (Bust), Thomas Duarte (Bust). Ceiling is Hunter Henry (Starter); floor is Bucky Hodges. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Evan Engram, Thomas Duarte. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 21 spots below the room's consensus #47 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.

Jace Sternberger

Draftanomics projects Jace Sternberger (age 22.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #131 (range #81-#181, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Thomas Duarte (Bust), Jordan Leggett, Evan Engram (Bust). Ceiling is Nick Vannett (Starter); floor is Jordan Leggett. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Thomas Duarte, Evan Engram, Adam Shaheen. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #75 and the model won't take him before #131 — a 56-spot markdown. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.75s) leads the case against.

Kaden Smith

Draftanomics projects Kaden Smith (age 22.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #147 (range #121-#173, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 8% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jeremy Sprinkle (Bust), Jordan Leggett, Tyler Kroft (Starter). Ceiling is Maxx Williams (Starter); floor is Jordan Leggett. 40-yard dash of 4.92s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #100 and the model won't take him before #147 — a 47-spot markdown. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.92s) leads the case against.