3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Shaquille Leonard (age 22.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #67 (range #50-#84, wide band). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a value lean: #67 against a consensus #86 is a 19-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Genard Avery (age 23.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #107 (range #76-#138, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Nick Vigil (Contributor), Nick Kwiatkoski (Starter), Carl Nassib (Starter). Ceiling is Carl Nassib (Starter); floor is Nick Vigil (Contributor). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 28 spots below the room's consensus #80 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jermaine Carter Jr. (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #188 (range #173-#203, wide band). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Ronald Blair (Starter), Ryan Russell (Franchise), David Onyemata (Starter). Ceiling is Xavier Cooper (Franchise); floor is Ronald Blair (Starter). Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 796 spots ahead of the room (board #188 vs consensus #984), and at a 5% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.