3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Arden Key (age 22.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #70 (range #56-#84, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kamalei Correa (Contributor), Carl Nassib (Starter), Shaq Lawson (Starter). Ceiling is Joey Bosa (Starter); floor is Kamalei Correa (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #70 sits within 10 spots of the room's #60 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #44 (range #22-#66, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Shaq Lawson (Starter), Charles Tapper (Bust), Joey Bosa (Starter). Ceiling is Joey Bosa (Starter); floor is Kamalei Correa (Contributor). Drafted #160 by LAR in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a value lean: #44 against a consensus #63 is a 19-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with missed entire rookie season the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Josh Sweat (age 21.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #95 (range #69-#121, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Joey Bosa (Starter), Shaq Lawson (Starter), Charles Tapper (Bust). Ceiling is Danielle Hunter (Franchise); floor is Emmanuel Ogbah (Starter). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 28 spots below the room's consensus #66 — don't pay sticker price. The 28-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.