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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
IY
Isaac Yiadom
CB · Boston Col.
22.2 yo · 6'1" · 190 lb
CA
Cornell Armstrong
CB · Southern Miss
22.6 yo · — · —
KM
Kamrin Moore
CB · Boston Col.
21.6 yo · 5'11" · 200 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Isaac Yiadom
Predicted pick
#120
range #65–#175
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#103
on 4 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Cornell Armstrong
Predicted pick
#239
range #214–#264
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Kamrin Moore
Predicted pick
#135
range #133–#137
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Isaac Yiadom· CB / S
  • Cornell Armstrong· CB / S
  • Kamrin Moore· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionIsaac Yiadom50
  • AthleticismIsaac Yiadom47
  • AgeKamrin Moore87
  • ConsensusIsaac Yiadom11
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Isaac Yiadom50
  • Breakout ageIsaac Yiadom50
  • WorkloadIsaac Yiadom100
  • RAS × productionIsaac Yiadom0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Isaac Yiadom
  • Artie Burns
    CB · #25
    Starter
  • Harlan Miller
    CB · #205
    Contributor
  • Kendall Fuller
    CB · #84
    Starter
  • Juston Burris
    CB · #118
    Contributor
  • Kalan Reed
    CB · #253
    Backup
Cornell Armstrong
  • Tye Smith
    CB · #170
    Bust
  • LeShaun Sims
    CB · #157
    Contributor
  • Tray Walker
    CB · #136
    Bust
  • Steven Nelson
    CB · #98
    Starter
  • D'Joun Smith
    CB · #65
    Bust
Kamrin Moore
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Isaac Yiadom
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    5 boards have him at mean rank #86; model has him #120 — a 34-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Promising comp group
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Artie Burns, Kendall Fuller.
Cornell Armstrong
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #993; model has him #239 — a 754-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tye Smith, Tray Walker, D'Joun Smith. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Kamrin Moore
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #207; model has him #135 — a 72-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Y8Snap share
Isaac YiadomCornell ArmstrongKamrin Moore· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Isaac Yiadom

Draftanomics projects Isaac Yiadom (age 22.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #120 (range #65-#175, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Artie Burns (Starter), Harlan Miller (Contributor), Kendall Fuller (Starter). Ceiling is Artie Burns (Starter); floor is Kalan Reed (Backup). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #86 and the model won't take him before #120 — a 34-spot markdown. The 34-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.

Cornell Armstrong

Draftanomics projects Cornell Armstrong (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #239 (range #214-#264, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Tye Smith (Bust), LeShaun Sims (Contributor), Tray Walker (Bust). Ceiling is Steven Nelson (Starter); floor is LeShaun Sims (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tye Smith, Tray Walker, D'Joun Smith. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 754 spots ahead of the room (board #239 vs consensus #993), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Kamrin Moore

Draftanomics projects Kamrin Moore (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #135 (range #133-#137, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 72 spots ahead of the room (board #135 vs consensus #207), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.