2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: 130-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $21M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV and a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Christian Kirk (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #33 (range #1-#93, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Will Fuller (Starter), Tyler Boyd (Starter), Mike Thomas (Contributor). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Mike Thomas (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #33 sits within 8 spots of the room's #41 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Antonio Callaway (age 21.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #163 (range #119-#207, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Kolby Listenbee, Demarcus Robinson (Contributor), Mike Thomas (Contributor). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Mike Thomas (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #89 and the model won't take him before #163 — a 74-spot markdown. The 74-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.