3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Breeland Speaks (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #212 (range #196-#228, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kamalei Correa (Contributor), Geneo Grissom (Contributor), Jihad Ward (Starter). Ceiling is Shane Ray (Franchise); floor is Geneo Grissom (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #78 and the model won't take him before #212 — a 134-spot markdown. The 134-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Zach Sieler (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #183 (range #162-#204, wide band). Bust probability sits at 43% — real but not disqualifying. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 65 spots ahead of the room (board #183 vs consensus #248), and at a 43% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Chad Thomas (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #224 (range #175-#273, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 55% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Noah Spence (Starter), DeForest Buckner (Starter), Anthony Chickillo (Contributor). Ceiling is Za'Darius Smith (Franchise); floor is Anthony Chickillo (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #104 and the model won't take him before #224 — a 120-spot markdown. A 55% bust probability backs the 120-spot markdown.