3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Chris Herndon (age 22.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #143 (range #120-#166, wide band). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Temarrick Hemingway (Bust), Nick Boyle (Starter), Geoff Swaim (Starter). Ceiling is Nick Boyle (Starter); floor is Beau Sandland. 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Temarrick Hemingway, Thomas Duarte. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #80 and the model won't take him before #143 — a 62-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
−0.02 boards with him top-100; −0.02 charting gap run block grade; +0.02 lowest board ranking
+0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 boards with him top-50; +0.02 scout consensus